101 Human Experiment 1

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-See Tversky & Kahneman (1974) Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. [http://www.jstor.org.ezp1.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/jstor/printpage/00368075/ap004343/00a00080/0.pdf?backcontext=page&dowhat=Acrobat&config=jstor&userID=80673ce1@harvard.edu/01cc99334100501aabeb7&0.pdf Science 185:11242].+See Tversky & Kahneman (1974) Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. [http://www.jstor.org.ezp1.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/jstor/printpage/00368075/ap004343/00a00080/0.pdf?backcontext=page&dowhat=Acrobat&config=jstor&userID=80673ce1@harvard.edu/01cc99334100501aabeb7&0.pdf Science 185:1124].
-1000+2 (& 7): 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (& rev)
-4000+
-10000+
-20000+
-20000+
-35000+
-43000+
-500000+
-3.+Our answers 2: 1000 4000 10000 20000 20000 35000 43000 500000
-0.05+Our answers 7: 700 5040 10000 35000 36000 40000 45000 60000
-0.5+
-0.7+
-0.7+
-0.7+
-0.7+
-0.7+
-0.7+
-4.+Actual: 40,320 Reported median: 2250 descending; 512 ascending
-TTTTTTTTTT+3: 70 engineers and 30 lawyers; probability that Dick is an engineer
-HHTHTTTTHH+
-HTHTTTHHTH+
-THHTTHTHHH+
-HTTTHHTTTH+
-HTTHHHTHTH+
-5.+0.05 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
-45, 45+Actual: 0.7 Previous observations: 0.5
-45, 45+
-45, 45+
-50+
-6.+4: TTTTTTTTTT HHTHTTTTHH HTHTTTHHTH THHTTHTHHH HTTTHHTTTH HTTHHHTHTH
-0+Previous observations: more than two in row are rare.
-2+
-0, 0+
-100+
-"high"+
-7.+5: 10 people, # committees of 2 or 8 members?
-700+(45, 45) (45, 45) (45, 45) 50
-5040+ 
-10000+Actual: 45 Median for 2 was 70; for 8 was 20.
-35000+ 
-36000+6: 4/5 vs 12/20 -- Odds that actually 2/3?
-40000+ 
-45000+0 2 0, 0 100 "high"
-60000+ 
 +Actual: [C(5,4)(2/3)^4 (1/3) / C(5,1)(2/3)(1/3)^4]= 8
 + 
 +[C(20,12)(2/3)^12 (1/3)^8 / C(20,8)(2/3)^8(1/3)^12]= 16
 + 
 +Most people feel that 4/5 is better evidence.

Revision as of 01:56, 22 September 2005

See Tversky & Kahneman (1974) Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:1124.

2 (& 7): 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (& rev)

Our answers 2: 1000 4000 10000 20000 20000 35000 43000 500000

Our answers 7: 700 5040 10000 35000 36000 40000 45000 60000

Actual: 40,320 Reported median: 2250 descending; 512 ascending

3: 70 engineers and 30 lawyers; probability that Dick is an engineer

0.05 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Actual: 0.7 Previous observations: 0.5

4: TTTTTTTTTT HHTHTTTTHH HTHTTTHHTH THHTTHTHHH HTTTHHTTTH HTTHHHTHTH

Previous observations: more than two in row are rare.

5: 10 people, # committees of 2 or 8 members?

(45, 45) (45, 45) (45, 45) 50

Actual: 45 Median for 2 was 70; for 8 was 20.

6: 4/5 vs 12/20 -- Odds that actually 2/3?

0 2 0, 0 100 "high"

Actual: [C(5,4)(2/3)^4 (1/3) / C(5,1)(2/3)(1/3)^4]= 8

[C(20,12)(2/3)^12 (1/3)^8 / C(20,8)(2/3)^8(1/3)^12]= 16

Most people feel that 4/5 is better evidence.

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